Search results for "Predictive modelling"
showing 10 items of 35 documents
Estimating “land use heritage” to model changes in archaeological settlement patterns
2016
International audience; In this paper, we present a method to calculate a “land use heritage map” based on the concept of “memory of landscape”. Such a map can be seen as one variable among others influencing site location preference, and can be used as input for predictive models. The computed values equate to an index of long-term land use intensity. We will first discuss the method used for creating the land use heritage map, for which kernel density estimates are used.We will then present the use of these land use heritage maps for site location analysis in two study areas in SE France. Earlier analyses showed that the influence of the natural environment on settlement location choice i…
Introducing the Human Factor in Predictive Modelling: a Work in Progress
2012
International audience; In this paper we present the results of a study into integrating socio-cultural factors into predictive modelling. So far, predictive modelling has largely neglected the social and cultural dimensions of past landscapes. To maintain its value for archaeological research, therefore, it needs new methodologies, concepts and theories. For this study, we have departed from the methodology developed in the 1990s during the Archaeomedes Project. In this project, cross-regional comparisons of settlement location factors were made by analyzing the environmental context of Roman settlements in the French Rhône Valley. For the current research, we expanded the set of variables…
Predictive distribution models of European hake in the south-central Mediterranean Sea
2017
The effective management and conservation of fishery resources requires knowledge of their spatial distribution and notably of their critical life history stages. Predictive modelling of the European hake (Merluccius merluccius L., 1758) distribution was developed in the south-central Mediterranean Sea by means of historical fisheries-independent databases available in the region. The study area included the international waters of the south-central Mediterranean Sea and the territorial waters of Italy, Malta, Tunisia and Libya. Distribution maps of predicted population abundance index, and probabilistic occurrence of recruits and large adults were obtained by means of generalized additive …
Opportunities for the Use of Business Data Analysis Technologies
2016
Abstract The paper analyses the business data analysis technologies, provides their classification and considers relevant terminology. The feasibility of business data analysis technologies handling big data sources is overviewed. The paper shows the results of examination of the online big data source analytics technologies, data mining and predictive modelling technologies and their trends.
Dynamic mean absolute error as new measure for assessing forecasting errors
2018
Abstract Accurate wind power forecast is essential for grid integration, system planning, and electricity trading in certain electricity markets. Therefore, analyzing prediction errors is a critical task that allows a comparison of prediction models and the selection of the most suitable model. In this work, the temporal error and absolute magnitude error are simultaneously considered to assess the forecast error. The trade-off between both types of errors is computed, analyzed, and interpreted. Moreover, a new index, the dynamic mean absolute error, DMAE, is defined to measure the prediction accuracy. This index accounts for both error components: temporal and absolute. Real cases of wind …
Technical Note: Prediction Models of Airborne Sound Insulation of Multilayer Materials with Viscoelastic Thin Sheets
2008
The growing introduction of new insulation materials in building acoustics has caused an increase of the importance of the prediction tools. Appropriate simulations allow strictly necessary laboratory measurements to be identified. In this way, costs are reduced. The demands of new legislation has resulted in the appearance of various software designed to facilitate prediction. The prediction models are based on different hypotheses: adaptation of impedances, spatial behaviour of spectral components, statistical energy distribution, the Finite Element Method (FEM), etc. Each of these models and methods offer advantages and contain limitations. In this paper, different models for prediction…
A distributed real-time data prediction and adaptive sensing approach for wireless sensor networks
2018
International audience; Many approaches have been proposed in the literature to reduce energy consumption in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs). Influenced by the fact that radio communication and sensing are considered to be the most energy consuming activities in such networks. Most of these approaches focused on either reducing the number of collected data using adaptive sampling techniques or on reducing the number of data transmitted over the network using prediction models. In this article, we propose a novel prediction-based data reduction method. furthermore, we combine it with an adaptive sampling rate technique, allowing us to significantly decrease energy consumption and extend the …
The use of prediction models of spontaneous pregnancy in in vitro fertilization units reveals differences between the expected results of public and …
2009
To evaluate the applicability of prediction models (PM) of spontaneous pregnancy (SP) in a population of infertile patients from a university-affiliated private assisted reproductive technology center (Instituto Valenciano de Infertilidad) and in the reproductive medicine section of a public university hospital (La Fe), both belonging to the same city (Valencia, Spain) between January and December 2008. We calculated the probability of SP using the PM developed by Hunault et al. in our two populations, and observed an estimated probability of SP40% or the PM applicable in approximately 97% of the studied couples, and statistical differences between pregnancy probabilities in the two setting…
Making Every "Point" Count: Identifying the Key Determinants of Team Success in Elite Men’s Wheelchair Basketball
2019
Wheelchair basketball coaches and researchers have typically relied on box score data and the Comprehensive Basketball Grading System to inform practice, however, these data do not acknowledge how the dynamic perspectives of teams change, vary and adapt during possessions in relation to the outcome of a game. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the key dynamic variables associated with team success in elite men’s wheelchair basketball and explore the impact of each key dynamic variable upon the outcome of performance through the use of binary logistic regression modelling. The valid and reliable template developed by Francis, Owen and Peters (2019) was used to analyse video footage in S…
Child abuse/neglect risk assessment under field practice conditions: Tests of external and temporal validity and comparison with heart disease predic…
2015
AbstractObjectives (1) Identify validation design and accuracy assessment standards for medical prognostic models applicable to evaluation of child abuse/neglect (CA/N) risk assessment models. (2) Assess the accuracy of the California Family Risk Assessment (CFRA) in predicting CA/N using the foregoing standards. (3) Compare the prediction accuracy of the CFRA with the prediction accuracy of coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction models. Questions addressed (1) What validation design and accuracy assessment standards are used to evaluate medical prognostic models? (2) What is the evidence for the accuracy of the CFRA using those standards? (3) How does the accuracy of the CFRA in predictin…